(Tom Cooper's Intro)

It’s yet another Monday morning, so I hope you all have a mug of hot coffee, cappuccino, or tea by hand. Nah, it’s not like you need one, but: it might make reading the following a bit more pleasant. As for why… well, because it’s Monday morning. Certainly a reason enough, on its own.

For me, it’s a Monday after two particularly intensive weeks, with lots of TV-interviews, but also meeting lots of interesting people, and exchanging lots of interesting information and opinions.

One of the things I’ve got ‘confirmed’, sort of, is that by all the meetings to arrange meetings… (you know the rest), ‘the West’ is presently doing exactly nothing to increase its help for Ukraine. Oh, sure, Italy has decided to ‘empty its garages’ by donating all the remaining 400 M113 armoured personnel carriers to the ZSU. But, beyond that… ‘crickets’…

And these crickets are literal. Because there are so many, so much more important things for ‘the West’ to do.

You see: with the USA in the state of something like ‘spiralling out of control’, possibly even in the process of ‘terminal dive pending a big crash’, and the ‘leadership of Europe’ being busy arranging conferences to arrange meetings, to arrange talks… hardly anybody within NATO dares doing anything. Within the military and intelligence ranks of the alliance, there are none of usual meetings, no conferences, there is no exchange of ideas, even whatever combat experiences from Ukraine one or another party has caught. At most, single people meet in private to chat. But, nothing happens over there in Brussels. Even the windows are remaining tightly shut, so that no fresh air can get in - almost exactly like in the Pentagon. That way, the alliance is handsomely paralysed.

As for why: the Americans are preoccupied gaping at what’s up in Washington D. C., while Europeans either do not want, or do not dare talking with Americans: nobody is as crazy as to do so because with Dumpf in the White House nobody can be sure what of what they might say might end up in the ears of the FSB, or GRU, or Pudding in person.

Now, sure, that with the ‘French nuclear shield’ is something Paris offered to do two times, already back in March, but hey: why not re-filling the news reports with the same topic again? Even more so considering that with the cabinet of the new German chancellor Friedrich Merz taking over in Berlin, the times of a rift between Berlin and Paris are over. Much to displeasure of Warsaw, of course, which was about to start enjoying its new-old alliance with places further West. Means: for the next few weeks and then months, the zombie idiots in Berlin, Paris, Warsaw, and London - probably with some aid from Rome and Madrid - are going to remain busy arranging meetings, so they can arrange meetings, so they can talk… because there is so much to talk about and absolutely no urgency to act…

And so, Ukraine is left on its own to keep Pudding at bay.

But, don’t worry: it is already certain, beyond any doubt, at least 1,000%, more likely 1,000,000% certain, that this condition is not going to last forever. The other topic keeping ‘NATO’ busy - instead of, for example, creating an alternative alliance without the USA (alone because, apparently, nobody here in the EU has realised that Dumpf still has at least 3,5 years in the White House… all provided he, or Musk, or Thiel & AG ever decides to leave) - is that of absolutely certain, 1000% guaranteed Pudding’s invasion of NATO. In 2030. Or by 2030. Or by 2035. Or Whenever. Never mind: this is matter of fact. Beyond certain.

Arguably, nobody of all the glorious people thinking that way can explain with what troops and arms might Pudding do so. But, hey: hand on heart, do troops, arms, and equipment matter at war? And if so, since when? That’s why everybody is sure: that’s going to happen. Everybody is sure, he’s going to invade. Either the Baltic states, or Finland. And that’s so obvious, nobody is coming to the idea to question this conclusion…

…or come to the idea to ask such nifty questions like why should Pudding invade NATO, and/or one or another EU-member - if both alliances are already so well subverted and paralysed into indecision that even if Pudding is already running a ‘hybrid war’ against them, there is no war, you know.

Which is just fine.

One-two additional elections, and one or two more of such like Orban in power, and things simply couldn’t get better. For Moscow.

Correspondingly, if the European-part of NATO is now doing anything at all, then preparing to fend off that invasion. That is: arranging meetings to talk about preparing, of course: don’t get brazen now and expect European ‘leaders’ to lead, and actually act… like inform and mobilise their public and economies, mobilise armed forces, place orders for necessary arms, run necessary reforms while there is still the time to do so… which, in turn means that… did I mention that already? If not, here you have it: it means that Ukraine is left on its own to keep Pudding at bay.

Honourable exceptions from such rules are ‘minor’ European nations. See: Denmark, just for example, and the three Baltic states. Or the - much slower - Sweden. They have concluded something that’s absolutely non-concludable: that it might be a better idea to bolster support for Ukraine, so to keep Pudding busy with Ukraine and thus unable to invade NATO and/or EU….

Blasphemy! Political pornography!

How good their aid is not enough to make Ukraine capable of actually defeating the invasion and thus ending the genocide. If you wonder why: well, do I have to remind you what is going to happen if pooh, lil Russia ends up defeated in Ukraine? …tsk, tsk, tsk… everybody in NATO knows the answer; only you, esteemed reader, not.

With other words: what we might call ‘our politics’ here in ‘the West’ is in such a state of super-incompetence that there are no words to describe it. It’s really so that Pudding needs not invading anybody at all (at least not beyond Ukraine): a matter of fact is that this ‘the West’ can’t defeat anybody. Except itself. Entirely on its own. Which it is already on the best way of doing.

…What a surprise then, Moscow is not accepting any kind of ‘cease-fire negotiations’ or similar US- and European fantasies…

Another thingy that was remarkable to see over the last two weeks was hyper-fascinating. That would be: lessons from the latest Indo-Pakistani War. Theoretically, one could take that affair as a good example for one nuclear power disarming another, something that never happened before. One could consider it as an excellent example for one party rapidly, yet massively bolstering its air defences and anti-UAV systems to the degree where it disabled the other party’s capability to hit, no matter how massively the latter tried. And as an example for what are professional, excellently trained, well-equipped armed forces actually capable of doing in our times - if only their political masters let them do so.

Problem: well, sorry, but Dumpf said it was him who negotiated a ‘cease fire’, and Pakistan declared a victory. And since all the journos covering this topic for the BBC, CNN etc. are Pakistanis, both of this is ‘truth, nothing but the truth, so God help us’. What’s more, the party that won this war is ‘Pudding’s friend’, while the party that lost it is the ‘most important non-NATO ally’, and then equipped with holly F-16s, and so invincible, and so super-turbo-magnachrom-laude and whatever - that one can’t even seriously discuss this war, or such facts, not to talk about concluding the obvious, or drawing any kind of useful conclusions.

Besides, since when should the civilised, noble ‘the West’ learn lessons from conflicts fought by some ‘Third World bimbos there’…

Simply uninteresting.

Oh, look: a squirrel…

***

Kursk

A river crossing and logistics site in Sudzha are struck by GRU-39 bombs. There were more Ukrainian airstrikes on Guyevo and they also dropped an AT mine on a house in that village. Russian forces made it to Bilovody and Loknia but it is unclear if they survived the journey.

Desperate times are requiring desperate measures. And thus, the 425th Skala Regiment is using motorcycles to improve mobility. While they trained with assault tactics, it appears they are using the motorcycles to cross open ground quickly when reinforcing/resupplying a position or evacuating casualties (with motorcycles or quad bikes).

A Russian agent served as a driver in the Ukrainian army. Russia used his phone as a live beacon. They signaled him to leave before conducting an attack on his location. He deserted and hid in Kharkiv while waiting for the FSB to move him to Russia, as they promised. The agent was arrested by Ukraine and his phone was seized as evidence.

***

Belgorod

9 km east of the Ukrainian border, a Russian logistical site was detected and hit with three bombs.

A Russian locomotive was hit by a drone 20 km from the Ukrainian border.

***

Kharkiv

The 13th Kartia used a ground drone to drive 12 km to the front line, pick up a wounded soldier, and drive 12km to an evacuation point. The ground drone is only used as a medical evacuation vehicle if it is too dangerous for conventional vehicles because the ground drone isn’t as reliable.

A TOS-1A is destroyed 10 km northeast of Vovchansk.

Ukrainians caught in the open by the Vovchansk bridge are attacked. Russians around Vovchansk are hunted by drones.

***

Kupiansk

The last week or so, Syrsky was busy creating yet another a cauldron in the Stara Mykolaivka, in the south, and thus had no time to take care to botch up the situation in the Kupiansk area even more. Don’t worry, we’re going to see the repercussions. Sooner, rather than later.

Adjacent houses in Russian-occupied Kruhliakivka are hit by drones.

An M113 is destroyed by a drone 4 km from the front lines.

A Russian tank 10 km from the front is bombarded by drones.

***

Terny

The 66th Brigade uses artillery to eliminate Russians in Nove.

3 km west of Makiivka, Russians are detected and attacked. On the northern edge of the village, more Russians are seen.

Ridkodub suffers a Russian airstrike.

***

Chasiv Yar

Some elevated pipe sections of the canal have been removed so a (Russian) BTR could drive through and be destroyed in Chasiv Yar. A BTS-4 is destroyed just outside Bakhmut.

Russian drones bomb by night and day.

Chervone is bombed by aircraft.

***

Toretsk

Russia continued to push north of Novoolenivka and advanced from Oleksandropil to Zoria. They are slowly moving into Romanivka, as well, and there is only 3000 meters between Zoria and Romanivka. Ukrainian counterattacks are unlikely given the heavy Russian drone presence. This means that, yes: Syrsky was successful in creating yet another of his beloved cauldrons. Because, now Ukrainian forces around Stara Mykolaivka are in yet another cauldron and the withdrawal from the same will also be complicated by drones….

A Russian BMP peppers a tree-lined road north of Dachne.

A Russian ATGM is fired on a Ukrainian position in Toretsk. 6500 meters north of Toretsk, a Ukrainian ammo depot is found. Naturally, the Russians also claimed they killed a drone team, as well. Ukrainians in Shcherbynivka are attacked by drones. 1500 meters south of Romanivka Ukrainians are attacked by drones on a tree-lined road.

Russian motorcycles north of Toretsk are stopped by accurate artillery. More artillery is used on Russian targets inside Toretsk, on the edge of Toretsk, and 2 km north of Toretsk.

The 12th Azov Brigade is using a Seth drone with a 50+km range and a 3-5 kg payload. A reconnaissance drone locates a target and when the Seth drone locks onto the target it strikes it autonomously.

***

Pokrovsk

Russians in Uspenivka are attacked by drones.

During an attack on Udachne, a four-man Ukrainian position was overrun. Two Ukrainians were captured and executed. The fate of the other two soldiers is unknown.

A Ukrainian position north of Dachenske is hit by thermobaric rockets.

After entering Nova Poltavka the Russians were pushed out. The hit again - this time supported by airstrikes and rocket barrages - and then followed with a much more systemic assault. This eliminated Ukrainians that sought shelter in bunkers with no way to fight back - essentially: a form of suicide. Caused by the fact that Syrsky and Buddies remain insistent on refusing to re-train and reform the entire ZSU. What a surprise then, this time the Russians secured what’s left of Nova Poltavka.

The 414th destroys two IFVs and the infantry they carried.

***

Andriivka

A Russian assault into Troitske from the north is met by shellfire. With the Russian advance in the north, the village is in a weaker position.

Russia conducted a rocket bombardment of Oleksivka.

Another Russian assault displays a flag in the middle of Bahatyr. Russians in the northwest of the village are shelled. They were pushed out again and Russia bombarded the village with rockets and airstrikes. Ukraine says they killed 167 Russians and wounded 38 in recent fighting. While Ukraine pushed Russia out of Bahatyr two weeks in a row with counter attacks, Russian advances on the flanks are making it more difficult to hold onto the village.

A Maxxpro is destroyed in Odradne and the village is shelled.

***

(…to be continued…)

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This text is published with the permission of the author. First published here.