Özgür Özel. Photo: Sözcü

The crackdown on Turkey’s largest opposition party initially appeared to be a poor move by the authorities. Only now have its true aims become clear. On 21 May, a court reinstated Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the former leader of the Republican People’s Party, to his post. He lost it in the autumn of 2023, at the party congress, following a crushing defeat in the presidential election – and this defeat was just one of many that the 77-year-old Kılıçdaroğlu suffered during his leadership of the CHP. The new leader, 51-year-old Özgür Özeli, led the party to victory in the local elections within six months of taking charge, breaking through the 25% glass ceiling that had dogged the party for decades. In the spring of 2024, the Republican People’s Party secured 38% of the vote, compared to the 35% obtained by Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party. It was at this point that the authorities realised that the Turkish people were ready for a change in leadership.

Özgür Özel has organised hundreds of rallies following the arrest of the popular Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and the removal from office of a further 60 opposition mayors and district heads.

However, despite the pressure and significant losses, the People’s Republicans continue to lead in most opinion polls, and 111 of the 138 members of parliament have expressed their support for Özel even after he was removed from his leadership post. 

It would seem that, were a new party congress to be held — even if all delegates were replaced — the ‘old man’ would stand no chance of holding on to the party. Especially given his transformation into an agent of the authorities. However, as it turns out, he doesn’t need to. Kılıçdaroğlu faces a single task: to prevent a party congress from being held before the next (or early) elections in Turkey, even though Özel’s supporters have collected 900 signatures for an extraordinary meeting (601 signatures out of 1,200 are sufficient). All the support the authorities need from Kılıçdaroğlu is those 27 MPs who have sided with him. 

The current Mejlis consists of 600 members. At least 360 votes are required to amend the Constitution, but in that case, the draft would have to be put to a referendum. And the government is no longer certain that the Turkish people will allow Erdoğan to be re-elected twice more. 

The second option is to amend the constitution without a referendum. This requires 400 votes.

Erdogan’s AKP currently has 275 seats.

The nationalist partners have 46 MPs. 

The Kurds, who have been co-opted from the once highly opposition-minded DEM party and have been promised that Öcalan will be released from his life sentence, hold 56 seats.

Kurdish Hezbollah – 4.

The MPs from another Kurdish party hold a further three seats.

A total of 383 – and it is by no means certain that all Kurdish MPs will vote in favour of such a constitution, as ordinary Kurds are increasingly less likely to vote as their leaders instruct. More and more young Kurds want democracy, rather than the preservation of a system of Kurdish chieftaincy under the suzerainty of the Turkish sultan.

And this is where Kiliçdaroğlu’s help is needed. His 27 MPs make up the shortfall in the parliamentary balance, allowing Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to remain in the presidency indefinitely without a referendum. Will this destroy the CHP brand once again? Most likely for many years to come, as has already happened in the party’s history. 

What will Özgür Özel and opposition-minded voters do? For the record, Özel will use every opportunity to regain control of the party through legal means. However, to prepare for the elections, Özel’s majority will be forced to operate under a different banner. This is increasingly being confirmed by leaks from the opposition figure’s inner circle. Several simulations carried out by pollsters already show that Ozel’s new party (this is precisely how the question was posed to voters) is polling between 29 and 35 per cent and is ahead of Erdoğan’s party. In contrast, the traditional CHP, led by the appointed Kılıçdaroğlu, is polling at 5 per cent at best and failing to clear the 7 per cent threshold. However, if the extent of the moral decline of the ‘useful old man’ allows him to support the government’s plans to amend the Constitution, he will not be left without thanks and will be brought into the coalition, as has already happened twice with the nationalists. 

Turkish law allows each party within a coalition to field its own list of candidates in elections. If the coalition exceeds the 7% threshold, the parties within it share parliamentary seats in proportion to the votes they have received. This means that the pensioner Kılıçdaroğlu will secure parliamentary privileges for himself and 25–30 of his associates for life; with Atatürk badges on their chests, they will drive the final nail into the coffin of the republic, reviving the neo-Ottoman emperor.