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Photo: AP/Mohsen Ganji
Hello everybody!
Was considering preparing another one, two or more of my features, but: whenever I start writing one, it turns out here are yet more questions, and these are not entirely related or I haven’t played my answers yet. Besides, I’m short on time again. Thus, let me try it in form of a ‘quick’ Q&A instead.
Q:) Newspapers are full of comments like "Iran missile launches are down by 83%". Is that true? What about drones? Since the US didn't bother to learn about drone warfare over the last few years, and now finds itself unable to deal with them, their only chance is to destroy the drones on the ground. Is that feasible?
A:) I’m a weirdo with the memory of an elephant (except when it comes to names: to my endless shame, I can’t recall a person’s name 2 seconds after this was introduced to me). Point is: I recall similar claims like this with ‘83% of launchers were destroyed’ from dozens of conflicts of the last, say, 50-60 years. Perhaps the perfect example: during the June 1967 Arab-Israeli War (see: so-called ‘Six Days War’), the Israelis claimed to have destroyed 447 Egyptian, Iraqi, Jordanian, and Syrian aircraft (on the ground and in the air). Including more than 100 Egyptian MiG-21s and 30 Tu-16… And these figures are faithfully repeated by countless publications until this very day, without any kind of cross-checking (the first time anybody tried to cross check was some 16-17 years ago, when my team was working on the book Arab MiGs Vols. 3 & 4).
Actually, Egypt had neither 100 MiG-21s nor 30 Tu-16s at the time. Plus, at least some 20 MiG-21s have survived that war. Means: the Israelis couldn’t have destroyed as many.
But, try explaining this to anybody - especially to the Israelis… 🙄
So, the actual question is: what do the CENTCOM and/or the IDF think to know about the total number of IRGC’s launchers, and why do they- and why do their governments think they’ve destroyed (according to the Jerusalem Post, just for example) 60% of these, thus decreasing the number of launched missiles by 83%?
There are lots of answers, principal of which are related to intelligence-gathering methods, and the way these are then processed. However, the most important answer is that when US-Israel is ruled by such regimes like are currently ruling this ‘symbiosis’, it’s a matter of politics. Such regimes simply love statistics, and the higher these are the better.
With other words: sorry, I doubt the US-Israel have a trace of clue how many ‘launchers’ - where I mean ‘transporter-erector-launchers (TELs) for short-range-, intermediate-range- (IRBM) and medium-range ballistic missiles’ (MRBMs) - the IRGC has got. The reason is that even though the Iranian factories/workshops manufacturing these are (well) known, they are in production since the mid-1990s, and I doubt the US-Israeli intel services have ever had the opportunity to count all of them, precisely, before the mass ‘disappeared’ in the caverns of numerous Iranian ‘missile cities’ constructed the last 20 years.
Moreover, it’s not only that both the last- and this year, the US-Israeli officials were issuing quite ‘extravagant’ claims (to put it mildly): actually, considering what are they claiming, it’s nothing but surprising how little evidence are they publishing in support of all the claims now. After 14 days of this fracas, I’ve seen perhaps 12 strikes on TELs.
The same is valid for the rate of Iranian fire: because US-Israel is zip-lip on the number of missiles and UAVs fired by Iran on Israel, it’s impossible to say how many are really fired. This is as important because a close check of related Israeli claims from the war in June the last year has revealed that the IDF’s figures are not fitting: they’ve been pampered to ‘confirm’ the claim the Israeli air defences were ‘shooting down more than 90% of missiles approaching Israel’.
Therefore, it’s on hand: if they do not reliably know how many TELs were around before this war, and if their means of confirming kills are then overoptimistic too, the US-Israelis can’t possibly know how many have they destroyed.
…and even if they might have ‘at least rough ideas’ in this regards, the most likely result is a situation similar to Israeli claims from 1967: that the intel services are basing their assessments on a combination of incomplete intel on the number of available TELs and overoptimistic assessments about the number of those that were destroyed.
I.e. forget about such figures. They’re ‘something for public consumption’. Be patient and wait until something serious is released. And even then, cross-check and re-check 3-4 times before being ‘sure’.
Q:) How do you assess USA / Israeli claims?
A:) I’ve got a few simple rules. Rule No. 1: video, or it didn’t happen. Rule No. 2: do not simply accept what they tell you the video is showing, but check carefully. Rule No. 3: in the case of doubut, see Rules 1 and 2.
Q:) Does USAF / IAF control most Iranian air space?
A:) Like the last year in June, the IASF is dominating the airspace over western Iran. Nowadays, the USAF and USN are also dominating the airspace over southern Iran. Presently, for operations over central Iran (see the Karaj-Tehran-Seman area, Khorrammabad-Qom, and Esfahan-Yazd-Kerman-Shiraz area), they are using either air-launched ballistic missiles (Israelis), or cruise missiles (USAF & USN). For the mission of two B-2As to Parchin, two days ago, the USAF took 14 UAVs and 60+ support aircraft.
Therefore: nope, they (still) do not control ‘most’ of Iranian airspace. This might, but is unlikely to change for at leas a week longer.
Q:) USAF says they don’t fly B-52’s and B-1’s everywhere, do you agree?
A:) Yes.
Q:) Is USAF / IAF increasing air strikes daily?
A:) Not that I know it does. Indeed, the last 4-5 days, in reaction to the second and third IRGCASF attempts to strike one of its aircraft carriers underway in the Arabian Sea, the USN even distanced its aircraft there farther away from Iran. Combined with the mass of involved USAF tanker aircraft being necessary to support IASF and USAF operations, this resulted in the USN flying more of its F/A-18E/Fs in tanker configuration, which in turn decreased the number of strikes flown by this type.
AFAIK, the only part of this campaign seriously heathing up is the one against the IRGC-controlled Popular Mobilisation Forces of Iraq: after their multiple strikes on the US bases in Iraq, and the US embassy in Baghdad, these are coming under an increasing number of strikes - sometimes including A-10s based in Jordan, but meanwhile also such stuff like this Lucas attack UAV (essentially, the US-made, overpriced copy of the Shahed):
Q:) Were a total of 3 USAF planes shot down (by Kuwait)?
A:) Yes, 3 USAF F-15Es were shot down by a single F/F-18 of the Kuwait Air Force.
Q:) How battered is the IRIAF? I saw a claim that Israel has said to have destroyed all the active f-14s in Iran.
A:) At least according to the IDF, the IRIAF was ‘completely destroyed’. Is also something similar to what the IDF claimed the last year, at least for large parts of the IRIAF’s TFB.2, TFB.3, and TFB.4. I’m not buying it. Sure, the IRIAF planned to evacuate its operational transports to Pakistan, but it seems that some of these (some C-130s and Il-76s) were still caught on the ground at TFB.7 (Shiraz). But, I doubt its combat element was that heavily hit. All the US-Israelis have show so far are hits on non-operational ‘museum pieces’, parked and partially derelict already for years, actually used as decoys.
On the contrary, haven’t seen any hits on operational F-14s, F-4Es or Su-24s. Only hits on HASes known to have housed F-14s standing QRA (quick reaction alert) at TFB.8 (Esfahan).
…while the IRIAF has not just one air base in central and eastern Iran, that’s entirely under the ground.
Bottom line: yes, the IRIAF is largely destroyed in this war. But not entirely. That said, this situation is going to make it easier for the IRGCASF to say, ‘you see, IRIAF, now you’ve got none of Shah’s aircraft left and there is no need for you to continue existing; henceforth, you’re assimilated into the IRGC‘. That’s what the IRGC was dreaming about since 1979.
Q:) Have directed energy weapons been used in this war? US military industry claims to be able to shoot down drones and rockets with them but I haven’t seen aything in this war about that. I saw one video where it was claimed that the Iron Beam was shooting Hezbollah rockets but idk.
A:) Apparently, yes. There are reports about USN warships deploying their HELIOS lasers to bolster the defence of the Haifa area, for example.
A:) The THAAD and some Patriot systems have been damaged but how about the Arrow and David Sling? Haven’t seen anything about those.
Q:) Neither have I. Israeli military censorship has imposed drastic penalties (5 years of prison) for release of any kind of visual information about the damage caused to the IDF. That said, considering how hard has the IRGC targeted the Israeli air defences last year in June, I have no doubts it tried to hit the Arrow and David Sling sites now again. For example, it is very likely that the multiple hits reported from the Beit Shemesh area were related to the IRGCASF trying to hit the local Arrow site defending Sdot Micha AB - the main Israeli ballistic missile base (and underground nuclear weapons storage facility). The latter is ‘just across the hill’, to the west of Beit Shemesh.
Q:) Is IRIN depleted? (any numbers?)
A:) Haven’t had the time to check the statistics yet, but yes: all the major surface combatants of the IRIN have been sunk. The Navy might have one or two Kilo-class attack submarines and most of its midget submarines left. It’s fate is likely to resemble that of the IRIAF.
Q:) What do you think of the long rumored blockade and/or occupation of Kharg?
A:) That would be just another insanity, requiring ‘lots o boots on the ground’. That rock was protected by a strong IRGC-garrison in peace, and this was only reinforced since 28 Feb this year.
Q:) Kharg air strikes would harm not just the mullahs & IRGC but Iran’s future. I’ve assumed this is why Kharg has not been struck.
A:) Yes, but: good luck to anybody falling for illusion that oil-loading terminals on Khark can be ‘destroyed’ by air power for any significant period of time.
Few notes for the end:
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